◇ GLOSSARY
Prediction market
A venue where prices reflect crowd estimates of event probabilities, usually via tradable event contracts rather than open-ended perps. Some operators also list regulated crypto perps alongside event markets — same brand, different contract specs and margin rules.
Prediction markets compress uncertainty into a tradable number between 0 and 1 (or 0¢ and $1). They excel at elections, macro prints, and sports — questions with a settlement date and a defined oracle.
Perps excel at continuous exposure to an asset with levered delta and a carry schedule. You can hedge spot with a perp; you cannot hedge spot with a 'Will BTC hit $100k by December?' unless you construct a separate options or event book.
U.S. readers face a split landscape: CFTC-regulated event contracts on some venues, offshore perps elsewhere, and newly listed regulated crypto perps on others. Literacy means reading which contract you actually opened.